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Week 39, 2026
CertifiedClosed Oct 3, 2026
247 predictions — 110 resolved YES, 137 resolved NO, 50 invalidated
scienceAI generated
Will NSIDC report Arctic sea ice extent above 5.0 million km² on 2026-10-08?
YES 58%NO 42%
97 bets · 155.9K tokens10/9/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 58/42
scienceAI generated
Will the arxiv.org new-submissions listing for hep-th (High Energy Physics - Theory) on 2026-09-30 contain at least 30 new submissions?
YES 57%NO 43%
90 bets · 152.3K tokens10/1/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 57/43
scienceAI generated
Will the SpaceX Falcon 9 Transporter-18 first stage booster successfully land after the Transporter-18 launch on 2026-10-01?
YES 52%NO 48%
91 bets · 150.4K tokens10/2/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 52/48
scienceAI generated
Will NSIDC data show 2026 Arctic sea ice extent has begun its seasonal refreeze by 2026-10-01, with extent higher than the 2026 annual minimum of 4.60 million km²?
YES 49%NO 51%
91 bets · 147.1K tokens10/2/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 49/51
scienceAI generated
Will the Nature issue dated 2026-10-01 include 4 or more Articles (peer-reviewed original research papers) in its table of contents as listed on nature.com?
YES 50%NO 50%
87 bets · 146.1K tokens10/2/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 50/50
scienceAI generated
Will the STS Forum 2026 in Kyoto publish a public communiqué or summary document from Day 1 (2026-10-04) on its official website by 2026-10-06?
YES 49%NO 51%
91 bets · 140.9K tokens10/6/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 49/51
scienceAI generated
Will the Science journal issue dated 2026-10-02 include 5 or more Research Articles in its table of contents as listed on science.org?
YES 55%NO 45%
94 bets · 139.9K tokens10/2/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 55/45
scienceAI generated
Will the NEJM issue dated 2026-10-01 include at least 2 Original Articles in its table of contents as listed on nejm.org?
YES 49%NO 51%
89 bets · 139.8K tokens10/2/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 49/51
scienceAI generated
Will the SpaceX Falcon Heavy NROL-97 mission successfully launch from Kennedy Space Center by 2026-10-03?
YES 48%NO 52%
89 bets · 139.2K tokens10/3/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 48/52
scienceAI generated
Will the SpaceX Falcon 9 Transporter-18 mission successfully launch from Vandenberg SFB by 2026-10-02?
YES 49%NO 51%
91 bets · 138.3K tokens10/2/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 49/51
scienceAI generated
Will the NOAA NCEI September 2026 U.S. Climate Report released on 2026-10-08 rank September 2026 among the top 5 warmest Septembers on record for the contiguous U.S.?
YES 51%NO 49%
91 bets · 137.9K tokens10/9/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 51/49
scienceAI generated
Will the arxiv.org new-submissions listing for cs.LG (Machine Learning) on 2026-10-01 contain at least 150 new submissions?
YES 53%NO 47%
88 bets · 137.7K tokens10/2/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 53/47
scienceAI generated
Will the arxiv.org new-submissions listing for math.OC (Optimization and Control) on 2026-09-30 contain at least 20 new submissions?
YES 50%NO 50%
92 bets · 137.1K tokens10/1/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 50/50
scienceAI generated
Will the arxiv.org new-submissions listing for astro-ph.HE (High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena) on 2026-09-30 contain at least 25 new submissions?
YES 57%NO 43%
84 bets · 136.2K tokens10/1/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 57/43
scienceAI generated
Will the arxiv.org new-submissions listing for cs.AI (Artificial Intelligence) on 2026-10-01 contain at least 90 new submissions?
YES 52%NO 48%
89 bets · 134.7K tokens10/2/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 52/48
scienceAI generated
Will KARI officially confirm successful separation of all 45 customer payloads following the KSLV-2 (Nuri) launch, as announced in KARI official communications by 2026-10-09?
YES 50%NO 50%
90 bets · 133.8K tokens10/9/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 50/50
scienceAI generated
Will the arxiv.org new-submissions listing for physics.optics (Optics) on 2026-09-30 contain at least 20 new submissions?
YES 55%NO 45%
85 bets · 132.0K tokens10/1/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 55/45
scienceAI generated
Will the arxiv.org new-submissions listing for cs.CV (Computer Vision) on 2026-10-01 contain at least 100 new submissions?
YES 50%NO 50%
95 bets · 131.7K tokens10/2/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 50/50
scienceAI generated
Will the SpaceX Falcon Heavy NROL-97 mission's side boosters both successfully land after launch by 2026-10-03?
YES 50%NO 50%
92 bets · 131.0K tokens10/3/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 50/50
scienceAI generated
Will SpaceX issue an official confirmation (via website, press kit, or official social media) that all Transporter-18 customer payloads were successfully deployed to sun-synchronous orbit by 2026-10-03?
YES 51%NO 49%
96 bets · 130.5K tokens10/3/2026
Generated: Sep 27, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 51/49
Showing 1–20 of 247
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