Prediction Markets
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Week 33, 2026
Pending CertificationClosed Aug 22, 2026
253 predictions — 123 resolved YES, 130 resolved NO
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the U.S. Department of Defense publish a press release or readout referencing Taiwan Strait or Taiwan defense cooperation between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-23, as listed on defense.gov?
YES 50%NO 50%
83 bets · 110.8K tokens8/24/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 50/50
financeAI generated
Will the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close below 13.50 at the official 4:15 PM ET Cboe close on 2026-08-27?
YES 51%NO 49%
84 bets · 110.8K tokens8/27/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 51/49
financeAI generated
Will the GBP/USD exchange rate, as measured by the Federal Reserve H.10 daily noon buying rate (FRED series DEXUSUK), be at or above 1.3700 on 2026-09-04?
YES 52%NO 48%
86 bets · 110.6K tokens9/4/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 52/48
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs publish a formal press release referencing Chinese military activity in the South China Sea between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-24, as listed on consilium.europa.eu?
YES 51%NO 49%
84 bets · 110.5K tokens8/25/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 51/49
financeAI generated
Will the July 2026 Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), as released by the Conference Board at 10:00 AM ET on 2026-08-20, show a month-over-month change of 0.0% or greater (flat or positive)?
YES 51%NO 49%
84 bets · 110.3K tokens8/20/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 51/49
technologyAI generated
Will Apple (AAPL) announce any new product or major software update on or before 2026-09-17 via its official newsroom?
YES 51%NO 49%
82 bets · 110.2K tokens9/17/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 51/49
technologyAI generated
Will XPeng (XPEV) report Q2 2026 vehicle deliveries of at least 42,000 units in its earnings release on 2026-08-20?
YES 51%NO 49%
83 bets · 110.2K tokens8/20/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 51/49
scienceAI generated
Will the arxiv.org new-submissions listing for cs.LG on 2026-08-26 contain at least 155 entries?
YES 48%NO 52%
85 bets · 110.0K tokens8/27/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 48/52
sportsAI generated
Will South Sydney Rabbitohs win their NRL match against New Zealand Warriors on 2026-08-22?
YES 49%NO 51%
82 bets · 109.4K tokens8/22/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 49/51
technologyAI generated
Will Baidu (BIDU) stock close at or above $100 on 2026-08-19 at the 4:00 PM ET Nasdaq close, the day following its Q2 2026 earnings release?
YES 50%NO 50%
83 bets · 109.2K tokens8/19/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 50/50
geopoliticsAI generated
Will Florida's 2026 primary on 2026-08-18 result in the Republican gubernatorial candidate who raises the most campaign funds winning the primary, per FEC filings compared against Florida Division of Elections results?
YES 49%NO 51%
82 bets · 109.2K tokens8/23/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 49/51
sportsAI generated
Will the Brisbane Broncos win by more than 7 points against Canberra Raiders in the NRL match on 2026-08-21?
YES 49%NO 51%
85 bets · 108.9K tokens8/21/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 49/51
technologyAI generated
Will the NASDAQ Composite Index close at or above 20,000 on any single trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-17?
YES 50%NO 50%
82 bets · 108.6K tokens9/17/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 50/50
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the White House publish an official statement on U.S. policy toward Taiwan between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-19, as listed on whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/?
YES 52%NO 48%
80 bets · 108.6K tokens8/20/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 52/48
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the UN Secretary-General António Guterres issue a formal statement on the Gaza ceasefire between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-20, as published on the UN Secretary-General's official statements page?
YES 51%NO 49%
83 bets · 108.5K tokens8/21/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 51/49
financeAI generated
Will the USD/JPY exchange rate, as measured by the Federal Reserve H.10 daily noon buying rate (FRED series DEXJPUS), be at or below 157.00 on 2026-08-21?
YES 48%NO 52%
84 bets · 108.4K tokens8/21/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 48/52
financeAI generated
Will the FOMC minutes from the July 28–29, 2026 meeting, as published on federalreserve.gov at 2:00 PM ET on 2026-08-19, contain language suggesting the majority of FOMC members favor at least one additional rate hike before year-end 2026?
YES 47%NO 53%
85 bets · 108.4K tokens8/19/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 47/53
scienceAI generated
Will the arxiv.org new-submissions listing for q-bio.QM on 2026-08-19 contain at least 12 entries?
YES 49%NO 51%
82 bets · 108.3K tokens8/20/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 49/51
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the European Union Council publish an official press release announcing new sanctions against Russia between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-23, as listed on the EU Council press release portal?
YES 51%NO 49%
84 bets · 107.7K tokens8/24/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 51/49
technologyAI generated
Will Microsoft (MSFT) announce any new Azure AI service or feature via its official blog between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-17?
YES 50%NO 50%
82 bets · 107.2K tokens9/17/2026
Generated: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 50/50
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