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Week 38, 2026
CertifiedClosed Sep 26, 2026
231 predictions — 122 resolved YES, 109 resolved NO, 48 invalidated
scienceAI generated
Will the arXiv cs.LG new-submissions listing for 2026-09-22 contain at least 200 new submissions?
YES 45%NO 55%
72 bets · 77.6K tokens9/23/2026
Generated: Sep 20, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 45/55
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the P4M Summit on September 21, 2026 explicitly endorse the UN Charter Article 2(4) prohibition on use of force in its final communiqué, per the EU Council official press portal (consilium.europa.eu) by September 23, 2026?
YES 53%NO 47%
72 bets · 77.3K tokens9/24/2026
Generated: Sep 20, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 53/47
scienceAI generated
Will the arXiv hep-ph (High Energy Physics - Phenomenology) new-submissions listing for 2026-09-22 contain at least 50 new submissions?
YES 41%NO 59%
73 bets · 75.8K tokens9/23/2026
Generated: Sep 20, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 41/59
entertainmentAI generated
Will the combined domestic opening weekend of all new wide-release films (September 25-27) exceed $60 million total?
YES 44%NO 56%
71 bets · 75.5K tokens9/28/2026
Generated: Sep 21, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 44/56
geopoliticsAI generated
Will Ukrainian President Zelensky deliver his national statement at UNGA 81 High-Level General Debate on Day 1 (September 22, 2026) according to the UN press release published on un.org?
YES 59%NO 41%
75 bets · 75.3K tokens9/23/2026
Generated: Sep 20, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 59/41
scienceAI generated
Will the NOAA NCEI August 2026 Global Climate Report be publicly released by end of day 2026-09-22?
YES 46%NO 54%
75 bets · 74.8K tokens9/23/2026
Generated: Sep 20, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 46/54
technologyAI generated
Will a major tech company announce layoffs of more than 1,000 employees between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-22?
YES 49%NO 51%
75 bets · 74.5K tokens10/22/2026
Generated: Sep 21, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 49/51
entertainmentAI generated
Will Forgotten Island's opening weekend domestic gross exceed Heart of the Beast's opening weekend domestic gross for September 25-27?
YES 55%NO 45%
74 bets · 73.6K tokens9/28/2026
Generated: Sep 21, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 55/45
technologyAI generated
Will Intel announce a new AI accelerator chip or major processor update between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-10?
YES 45%NO 55%
72 bets · 73.2K tokens10/10/2026
Generated: Sep 21, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 45/55
technologyAI generated
Will a new open-source AI model surpassing GPT-4 performance benchmarks be released between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-22?
YES 59%NO 41%
73 bets · 71.6K tokens10/22/2026
Generated: Sep 21, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 59/41
entertainmentAI generated
Will Primetime (A24) gross more than Forgotten Island domestically during the opening weekend of September 25-27?
YES 59%NO 41%
74 bets · 70.7K tokens9/28/2026
Generated: Sep 21, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 59/41
Showing 221–231 of 231
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