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Week 18, 2026
Resolution In ProgressClosed May 9, 2026
296 predictions — 181 resolved YES, 87 resolved NO, 28 pending
geopoliticsAI generated
Will China's UN Security Council presidency issue a formal press statement on the Israel-Palestine situation during the week of May 4–10, 2026?
YES 54%NO 46%
10 bets · 23.5K tokens5/10/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 54/46
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the US State Department publish a press statement specifically about the DPRK following the UN Security Council's May 2026 1718 Sanctions Committee consultations?
YES 45%NO 55%
6 bets · 23.1K tokens6/1/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Wagering closes: Jun 1 00:00 UTC
geopoliticsAI generated
Will 'reform' or 'change' candidates in Lebanon's May 10, 2026 elections win at least 15 seats in Parliament according to official results?
YES 42%NO 58%
9 bets · 22.6K tokens5/24/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 42/58
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the Hezbollah-Amal Shiite alliance win at least 25 seats combined in the May 10, 2026 Lebanese parliamentary elections?
YES 79%NO 21%
8 bets · 22.4K tokens5/24/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 79/21
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the G7 issue any joint statement on African debt or development financing referencing the Africa Forward Summit within one week of the summit's close (by May 19, 2026)?
YES 64%NO 36%
6 bets · 22.1K tokens5/19/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 64/36
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the UN Security Council's May 2026 open debate on civilians in armed conflict (expected May 20) produce a formal Security Council resolution rather than only a presidential statement?
YES 43%NO 57%
9 bets · 22.1K tokens5/21/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 43/57
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the UN Security Council under China's May 2026 presidency hold a publicly open meeting on the situation in Ukraine during the week of May 4–10?
YES 53%NO 47%
7 bets · 22.0K tokens5/10/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 53/47
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the UN Security Council's semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina on May 7, 2026 produce a formal written outcome document (presidential statement or resolution)?
YES 8%NO 92%
7 bets · 21.5K tokens5/10/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 8/92
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the Lebanon parliamentary election on May 10, 2026 proceed as scheduled without a postponement announcement from the Lebanese Interior Ministry?
YES 44%NO 56%
5 bets · 21.1K tokens5/10/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 44/56
geopoliticsAI generated
Will at least 40% voter turnout be recorded in Lebanon's May 10, 2026 parliamentary elections according to the Lebanese Interior Ministry?
YES 45%NO 55%
9 bets · 21.1K tokens5/16/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 45/55
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the UNSC resolution renewing the Libya arms embargo vessel inspection pass with a vote of 13 or more in favor (i.e., without more than 2 abstentions)?
YES 57%NO 43%
9 bets · 20.0K tokens5/25/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Wagering closes: May 25 00:00 UTC
geopoliticsAI generated
Will China's UN Security Council presidency release a formal written programme-of-work press statement describing more than 20 scheduled meetings for May 2026 by May 6, 2026?
YES 80%NO 20%
6 bets · 19.8K tokens5/6/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 80/20
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the UN Security Council vote adopt a resolution renewing the Libya arms embargo vessel inspection authorization before May 26, 2026?
YES 75%NO 25%
10 bets · 19.1K tokens5/25/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Wagering closes: May 25 00:00 UTC
geopoliticsAI generated
Will any head of state from francophone West Africa (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, or Guinea) attend the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi on May 11–12, 2026?
YES 37%NO 63%
9 bets · 18.4K tokens5/13/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 37/63
geopoliticsAI generated
Will Russia explicitly call for the dissolution of the Office of the High Representative (OHR) during the UN Security Council's May 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina debate?
YES 46%NO 54%
10 bets · 18.2K tokens5/14/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: YES
Final 46/54
geopoliticsAI generated
Will US Secretary of State or a senior US State Department official attend any event of the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi on May 11–12, 2026?
YES 52%NO 48%
8 bets · 16.9K tokens5/13/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 52/48
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the UN Security Council DPRK 1718 Sanctions Committee consultation in May 2026 result in a publicly released summary or press elements noting any new concern about North Korean weapons transfers?
YES 24%NO 76%
8 bets · 16.8K tokens5/18/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 24/76
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the ICJ deliver a formal court order or ruling during its scheduled hearing sessions in the week of May 4–10, 2026?
YES 57%NO 43%
10 bets · 16.5K tokens5/11/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 57/43
geopoliticsAI generated
Will any UN Security Council member formally propose expanding UNISFA's mandate during the May 7, 2026 Abyei briefing or in subsequent May 2026 consultations?
YES 32%NO 68%
6 bets · 14.8K tokens5/11/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 32/68
geopoliticsAI generated
Will the UN Security Council briefing on UNISFA (Abyei) on May 7, 2026 result in a press statement expressing concern about inter-communal violence in Abyei?
YES 15%NO 85%
5 bets · 13.9K tokens5/8/2026
Generated: May 4, 2026
Resolved: NO
Final 15/85
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